Moody's Ratings and HR Ratings anticipate that Petróleos Mexicanos will continue to depend on backing from the Secretaría de Hacienda at least through 2029, even after its financial debt fell to 77,500 million dollars in the first half of 2026, according to El CEO on October 23.
La Jornada reported on October 22 that the oil company's financial debt dropped by 20,000 million dollars during this administration, 21% less than in 2024 and its lowest level since 2014. President Claudia Sheinbaum said that day that Treasury support accompanied the renegotiation of liabilities in 2025 and 2026, and offered a preview of the coming year: "Para 2027 este apoyo va a disminuir de manera muy importante." The liability trajectory went from 97,600 million dollars in 2024 to 85,200 million in 2025 and 77,500 million in the first half of 2026, according to the figures the agencies reviewed for El CEO. The data matters for Mexico because the cost of sovereign debt incorporates the expectation that the Treasury will back the state company.
Roxana Muñoz, senior vice president of ratings at Moody's Ratings, described the agency's assumption: "Nuestro supuesto principal es que al menos de aquí a 2030 el apoyo va a seguir ahí para la compañía." Edgar González, senior associate for Economic Analysis and Sovereign Debt at HR Ratings, estimated that the backing will hold at least through 2029 and warned that a scenario without transfers pushes net debt back to 2023 levels, when it exceeded 100,000 million dollars. Alejandra León, director of Strategy for Latin America at S&P Global Energy, noted that the company needs to expand its project portfolio, raise production and generate its own cash flow; she added that debts to suppliers make financing for its supply chain more expensive. Muñoz pointed out that payment delays to suppliers directly affect operations.
All three agencies agree that the reduction in liabilities comes mainly from public support rather than from a sustained operational recovery. The next signal will come with the details of that support in the 2027 budget, the year in which the Treasury has already anticipated a decline in transfers to the oil company, and with the three agencies' upcoming rating reviews.
This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.