A study published on August 10 in the Journal of Urban Affairs, reported by Nature, analyzed 11,500 neighborhoods and 46 million residents across more than 100 U.S. cities. It found no evidence that growth in the undocumented population drives crime: in neighborhoods where that population increased, property crime and aggravated assaults declined.
The study was authored by researchers from the University of California, Irvine, Stanford University, and the University of Akron. To estimate the undocumented population, it combined restricted census data from a federal research center in the United States with crime statistics from 2010 to 2018, applying a methodology similar to that used by the Department of Homeland Security. Lead author and criminologist Charis Kubrin noted that this is the first study to examine this relationship at the neighborhood level with such a large national sample. The issue is directly relevant to Mexico: the debate over immigration and security in the United States reaches Mexican communities on both sides of the border, and evidence about who commits crimes and who falls victim shapes the narratives that reach those families.
Between 2010 and 2018, the share of undocumented residents in the average neighborhood fell from 5.6% to 4.8%. In areas where that share grew, property crimes (residential burglary and vehicle theft) and aggravated assaults declined. The exception was violent robbery, which increased; researchers attribute this to victimization, not perpetration: those without regular immigration status tend to be paid in cash, avoid banks, and hesitate to report crimes for fear of deportation. The authors note that this finding contradicts the premise, prevalent in public debate, that undocumented immigration raises crime rates.
The study adds to the body of evidence finding no relationship between immigration and criminality, and establishes a measurable reference point for the next round of immigration policy debate in the United States. The interpretation of that data, with its nuances around victimization, will continue to shape the debate as it reaches Mexican communities along the border.
This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence drawing on verified sources, and reviewed by a human editor before publication.