The International Monetary Fund warned in July 2026 that the three factors that prevented a sharper rise in oil prices during the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz are in the process of being exhausted, leaving the global economy more exposed to any new disruption in energy supply, according to Bloomberg Línea.
The IMF analysis describes a market that absorbed the largest supply disruption in decades when the conflict at Hormuz removed approximately 20 million barrels per day from the market, equivalent to one-fifth of global consumption. The organization's economists noted that 'a considerable portion of that buffer has already been consumed.' For Mexico, the context is direct: both Pemex and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) operate with sensitivity to international crude prices, and the country continues to define its medium-term energy self-sufficiency strategy. The IMF warning provides analytical backing for the energy source diversification programs advancing on the national agenda.
The three absorbers the IMF identified as containment factors were:
- **Demand reduction in Asia:** high prices and the transition to alternative energies moderated consumption in Asian economies, providing flexibility during the most critical period. - **Higher production outside the Gulf:** the United States, Venezuela, Guyana, and Russia together added around 2 million additional barrels per day relative to 2025 levels. - **Use of strategic inventories:** the extraction of approximately 1,100 million barrels, equivalent to roughly 10 days of global consumption, from commercial and strategic reserves covered the deficit during the most critical months.
Despite the disruption, prices remained in the range of 90 to 100 dollars per barrel. The IMF warns that this absorption capacity cannot be recovered in the short term and recommends diversifying supply routes and accelerating the deployment of renewable capacity to reduce dependence on single chokepoints.
The IMF's next energy outlook update, scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2026, will provide the first data on whether the trend of strategic reserve depletion accelerated following the July events.
This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.