On October 15, 2026, HR Ratings cut Mexico's long-term sovereign debt rating from BBB+ to BBB, with a stable outlook, a level the firm places two notches above investment grade. The agency also lowered the rating of Petróleos Mexicanos by the same margin, from BBB+ to BBB, according to the account published by El Financiero on October 21.
The adjustment rests on two diagnoses from the rating agency: the deterioration of the main fiscal balances and a downward revision to the growth trajectory. For Mexico, the figure that weighs most is the cost of financing, because the rating sets the price at which the federal government and state-owned companies place debt in the markets. The Ministry of Finance (Secretaría de Hacienda) responded that the country retains investment grade with all eight agencies that assess its sovereign debt and maintained that it is pursuing a responsible fiscal policy, according to La Jornada.
HR Ratings' projections trace a rising debt path: 54.5 percent of GDP at the close of 2026, 61.2 percent in 2030 and 65.6 percent in 2033. The firm estimates a deficit of 4.6 percent of GDP in the Public Sector Financial Requirements (Requerimientos Financieros del Sector Público) at the close of 2026, above the 4.1 percent target in the approved economic package, and noted that easing pressure on public finances requires economic growth above 2.5 percent a year. At Pemex, the cut reflects the company's financial relationship with the federal government; HR Ratings calculates that the company's surplus will be insufficient to stop receiving support for debt payments at least until 2029. The Ministry of Finance, by contrast, cites a fiscal adjustment of 1.3 points of GDP in 2025 and notes that 80 percent of federal debt is denominated in pesos at a fixed rate.
The stable outlook means HR Ratings does not anticipate further rating changes over the next 12 or 18 months. The immediate point of observation is the 2026 fiscal close and the speed at which the broad deficit declines, along a trajectory the agency extends to 65.6 percent of GDP in 2033.
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