HR Ratings lowered Pemex's global scale rating on October 15, 2026, from HR BBB+ (G) to HR BBB (G), in line with the cut the same agency applied that day to Mexico's sovereign rating.
The link between the two ratings is explicit in the agency's methodology. According to the document reviewed by Proceso, the actions "are based on Mexico's sovereign rating action, whose rating was revised downward," and the agency adds that "Pemex's ability to meet its financial obligations continues to depend on support from the federal government." That support is channeled through contributions for debt service payments, capital investments and tax relief. For Mexico, the relevant data point is the cost of financing, because the global scale rating is the reference markets use to set the risk premium on the company and its issues.
The agency's projections point to total debt of 1.405 trillion pesos in 2028, versus 1.531 trillion in 2025, and net debt of 1.250 trillion in 2028, down from 1.346 trillion in 2025, according to Proceso. Expansión reports that Pemex posted an 8.6% annual revenue decline in 2025, to 1.529 trillion pesos, on the lower price of the Mexican Export Blend and a lower volume of crude exported, while in the first half of 2026 revenue grew 11.3%, to 876 billion pesos, on a 17.4% rise in domestic sales. Infobae also notes that HR Ratings estimates federal government support for debt payments will remain necessary "at least through 2029."
The next checkpoint is the 2027 Economic Package: HR Ratings conditions its scenario on capital contributions continuing at amounts above those foreseen in that document. The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público) maintains that the support strategy has improved the maturity profile and reduced future budget needs.
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