The World Bank projected on October 28, 2026 a 23% rise in commodity prices for this year and a 7% drop in 2027, with Brent crude averaging 91 dollars per barrel in 2026. The figure reshuffles the board for economies that export and import energy at the same time.
The forecast appears in the October Commodity Markets Outlook report, which Bloomberg Línea covered on October 29. The document rests on two assumptions: that the conflict in the Middle East does not intensify and that Russia recovers much of its crude export capacity over the coming year. For Mexico the data cuts two ways. Federal oil revenues are calculated on the price of crude, while imports of gasoline and diesel become more expensive when Brent rises. Add to that the rising cost of food, which the report estimates at 18% accumulated between 2026 and 2027.
The report breaks down the trajectory by category. Energy rises 32% this year and Brent averages 91 dollars per barrel in 2026, versus 69 in 2025; for 2027 the forecast drops to 79. World oil consumption falls 2.5%, the third-strongest annual contraction since 1980, and supply shrinks 5.2%, the largest drop in more than four decades outside the 2020 recession. Metals and minerals advance 25% and precious metals 40%, with copper at 13,200 dollars per ton. Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist at the World Bank, noted that commodity markets are absorbing several major shocks simultaneously and that energy cost increases and trade disruptions are pushing up prices across a broad set of products.
The report ties Brent's return to 79 dollars in 2027 to increased shipments from the Gulf and a partial normalization of Russian exports. Its adverse scenario sets the threshold at 105 dollars if those conditions are not met.
This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.