The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reported on September 3, 2026, that El Niño, already established in the tropical Pacific, will intensify to the "very strong" category, the highest on its scale. The agency's forecast estimates a probability approaching 100 percent that the phenomenon will persist through February 2027.
El Niño is a natural phenomenon that warms the surface of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and alters rainfall and temperature patterns thousands of kilometers away. The WMO clarifies that it is not caused by climate change, though it can compound the heat of an already warming planet. According to Al Jazeera, the 2023-2024 event contributed to 2024 being the warmest year on record, and the agency left open the possibility that the record could be broken. For Mexico and Latin America, the critical focus is on the hydrometeorological cycle: the September-to-November forecast anticipates above-normal temperatures across nearly all continental regions and a rainfall response consistent with a strong El Niño in the Pacific.
The Niño 3.4 index, which measures the temperature of that Pacific zone, climbed from an average of 1.5 degrees above normal between May and July to 2.0 degrees in July; weekly values from late July to mid-August ranged between 2.2 and 2.6 degrees. In some subsurface areas, water temperatures were more than 8 degrees above average. The WMO noted that no previous El Niño update had ever been so categorical, and that the event will peak toward the close of 2026, with effects extending into 2027. The phenomenon occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts from nine months to one year, according to the agency, which mobilized national meteorological services to strengthen preparedness and early warning systems.
With El Niño still in its strengthening phase, the monitoring window runs from now through early 2027: the WMO places the event's peak toward the close of 2026 and keeps alerts active for the current quarter. Upcoming readings from the tropical Pacific will confirm whether the projected trajectory holds.
This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.