US President Donald Trump has indicated he will not attack Iran before the November 3 elections, Al Jazeera reported on October 15. The war weighs on the campaign: nearly two-thirds of voters list it among their priorities, according to an AP poll cited by The Guardian.
The conflict began on February 28 with attacks by the United States and Israel and escalated when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried at least 20% of the world's crude and liquefied natural gas. A ceasefire agreed in June collapsed over control of the maritime passage; since then Washington has maintained a naval blockade on Iran's southern ports and Tehran attacks vessels it considers violators. Indirect negotiations, with Pakistan and Qatar as mediators, remain open, and Trump rejected Iran's offer last month to reopen the strait. Benchmark crude was trading on Thursday, October 15 at around 104 dollars per barrel, compared with about 72 before the war; Mexico imports gasoline and exports oil, so that benchmark weighs on its fuels and its oil revenues.
Analysts consulted by Al Jazeera describe three military routes for after the elections: - Maintaining naval pressure and escorts for commercial vessels, the most likely according to Patrick Bury of the University of Bath, with at least three US carrier groups in the Gulf. - Resuming the bombings, which Trump has mentioned as a possibility after the elections: more than 1,000 Tomahawk missiles have been fired and, according to an estimate by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), replenishing those reserves extends to the end of 2030. - A ground operation on Kharg Island, which concentrates about 90% of Iranian exports, which analysts consider unlikely.
At sea, the British office UKMTO counted 15 attacks on vessels between October 6 and 14, and Kpler recorded 2.9 million barrels crossing the strait on October 11, the lowest volume of the month.
Gulf crude flows, excluding Iranian ones, had recovered to more than 81% of their pre-war level in September, according to Kpler. Trump has said the conflict will end after the elections, so November 3 stands as the next decision point.
This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.