The OECD trimmed Mexico's 2026 growth forecast to 0.8%, per its June Economic Outlook. The revision, down from the 1.3% projected in March, reflects first-quarter contraction and persistent global trade uncertainty ahead of the USMCA review.

[Mexico News Daily](https://mexiconewsdaily.com/business/oecd-cuts-mexicos-2026-growth-forecast-brighter-2027/) reported that the organization cites economic policy uncertainty, tariffs, and fiscal consolidation as the primary drivers of the downgrade. The 2027 projection rises modestly to 1.8%, underpinned by private consumption and low unemployment. Headline inflation would converge gradually to the 3% target over the period, with a 3.2% reading at the end of the forecast horizon. The report adds cross-cutting risks: the USMCA review, judicial reform, Pemex's fiscal burden, and insufficient private investment.

The update collides with domestic data. Industrial activity surprised to the upside in April, posting monthly growth of 2.1% and annual growth of 1.8%, according to the [INEGI Monthly Industrial Activity Indicator bulletin](https://www.inegi.org.mx/contenidos/saladeprensa/boletines/2026/imai/imai2026_04.pdf), its best reading since November 2023. Construction rebounded 7.6% month-on-month; manufacturing added 1.2%, with twelve of twenty-one subsectors in expansion, including machinery and equipment at 6.0%, furniture at 2.7%, and transport equipment at 2.6%. Mining contracted 0.7%.

The OECD recommends scaling up renewable energy generation, strengthening the fiscal framework through improved revenue collection and expenditure control, and resolving the treaty review to rebuild investor confidence. Banxico maintains a more optimistic band, with a range of 1.0% to 2.2% for 2026 and a 2.0% projection for 2027. The organization notes that unemployment will remain low and that private consumption will sustain domestic demand over the coming quarters.

Mexico's signal is one of two speeds: hard industrial data pushes back against multilateral consensus pessimism, while fiscal consolidation and the USMCA review set the ceiling for the next twelve months. The next catalyst is the USTR letter of July 1, ahead of the formal start of negotiations.

Fuentes: