Moody's Ratings raised its growth forecast for Mexico to 2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027 on November 10, 2026, an upward revision of one percentage point and 0.6 points respectively versus its previous estimate, according to Aristegui Noticias. The rating agency attributed part of the adjustment to the indirect effects of investment in artificial intelligence.
The new forecast contrasts with the firm's previous revision: it had anticipated 1% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027, while the estimated advance for 2025 remains at 0.5%. In Latin America, the adjustment runs counter to that of Brazil, whose projected growth falls from 2% in 2026 to 1.6% in 2027, and to that of Argentina, with cuts for both years, according to El Financiero. The figure matters because global rating agencies' projections feed the sovereign and corporate financing conditions Mexico faces in 2027, from the cost of debt to companies' access to international markets.
The report also maps the price path: Moody's estimates that Mexican inflation will rise from 3.7% in 2026 to 3.9% in 2027 and moderate to 3.5% in 2028. On monetary policy, the agency notes that Banco de México cut its rate in November and points to a prolonged pause given inflationary and external risks. For emerging-market central banks, the report warns of greater constraints on further rate cuts due to high global rates and currency pressures. Globally, it projects an expansion of 2.6% annually between 2026 and 2028, with the United States at 2.3% this year and 2% in the following two. The technology impulse has a moderation date: the large digital infrastructure companies will slow the increase in their investment to around 25% in 2027, after exceeding 100% in 2026.
The document itself carries the warning: the contribution of technology investment to growth will lose momentum during 2027. For Mexico, that moderation and the inflation trajectory are the two data points that will define the room for maneuver in monetary policy in the next stretch.
This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.