Moody's estimates that the 2026 World Cup will attract just 768,000 visitors to Mexico's three host cities, a figure well below the more than two million projected by the Secretaría de Turismo. The revision also lowers the tournament's direct contribution to Mexico's gross domestic product for this year.

According to [Infobae](https://www.infobae.com/mexico/2026/06/10/baja-fiebre-mundialista-agencia-estima-la-llegada-de-menos-de-la-mitad-de-los-turistas-que-sectur-habia-pronosticado-para-el-mundial-2026-en-mexico/), Moody's calculates that 521,000 visitors will be domestic and 247,000 international, equivalent to less than 40% of the original official expectation. The agency attributes the downward revision to high ticket prices, mobility costs between the three North American host cities, stricter U.S. immigration policies, and the fact that Mexico hosts only 13 of the tournament's 104 matches. Coverage by [Vanguardia](https://vanguardia.com.mx/dinero/ocupacion-hotelera-se-mantiene-en-un-50-durante-primera-semana-del-mundial-BE21348696) confirms the picture: during the first week, hotel occupancy in the three host cities is running between 50% and 60%, with an average rate of around 1,800 pesos in metropolitan areas such as Saltillo.

Moody's puts direct tourism spending at close to one million dollars and estimates a modest GDP contribution of approximately 0.13 percentage points. The agency notes that FIFA broadcasting licenses restrict broader economic participation and that hotels, restaurants, and transportation will capture the bulk of the spillover. Saltillo is reporting occupancy near 50%, while Monterrey fluctuates between 58.9% and 65%, with projected peaks of 90% on match days. The National Hotel Chains Association has already revised its original estimate of 80% down to a range of 60% to 65%, according to industry data. Analysts attribute the weak demand to the tournament's fragmentation across three countries, the rise of alternative accommodation, and rates that are elevated compared to a regular hotel operating day.

The tournament's second round, with knockout matches between June 29 and mid-July, will be the real test for hotel rates and per-tourist spending. If the national average stays below 60%, the adjustment to Sectur's expectations will be confirmed by year-end 2026.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many tourists does Moody's estimate the 2026 World Cup will bring to Mexico?

Moody's estimates 768,000 total visitors across Mexico's three host cities, with 521,000 domestic and 247,000 international, according to the report published by Infobae on June 10.

What GDP contribution does Moody's calculate for Mexico from the 2026 World Cup?

Moody's calculates a contribution of approximately 0.13 percentage points to Mexico's GDP and direct tourism spending of close to one million dollars, according to the report cited by Infobae.

What hotel occupancy rate are Mexico's host cities seeing during the first week of the 2026 World Cup?

Hotel occupancy in CDMX, Guadalajara, and Monterrey is running between 50% and 60% in the first week, with an average rate of around 1,800 pesos in metropolitan areas, according to Vanguardia.

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