Mexico's Finance Ministry (SHCP) submitted the Public Finance and Debt Report to Congress on August 28 and affirmed that Mexico will retain its investment-grade rating, while the private sector projects total debt of 21.8 trillion pesos by 2027.
Two competing readings of the same fiscal data are shaping the terms of the 2027 Economic Package. The Finance Ministry's statement came during a Morena plenary session in the Chamber of Deputies, where Secretary Édgar Amador Zamora noted that all eight agencies that rate Mexico assign it investment-grade status. The private-sector reading, from the Center for Private-Sector Economic Studies (CEESP), holds that slowing growth is weakening public revenues while spending continues to climb, an imbalance that, the organization warns, jeopardizes the fiscal consolidation Mexico has committed to. The gap between these two assessments matters for Mexico and the broader region because sovereign borrowing costs and the country's credit rating both hinge on that budget.
The SHCP reported that tax revenues represent 15.6% of GDP and that all eight agencies rating the country assign it investment-grade status. According to the Report submitted to Congress, direct investment totaled 453,604 million pesos between January and July, 1.2% below the same period in 2025, though physical investment in July grew 62.6%. The CEESP calculated a first-half deficit of 559,000 million pesos, 36% above the same period in 2025, and projects total debt rising from 20.4 trillion pesos in 2026 to 21.8 trillion in 2027, with a financial cost of 4.1% of GDP. The organization adds that pension payments (1.7 trillion pesos this year) and Pemex's debt (approximately 1.4 trillion pesos) account for the main additional fiscal pressures.
The 2027 Economic Package, which the Executive will submit to Congress in the coming weeks, will show how the two readings can be reconciled: the Finance Ministry's assurance on the investment-grade rating and the private sector's warning on debt. Pre-criteria call for a 3.2% spending cut for the coming year, and the budget will define the available room for maneuver.
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