85% of Mexico's exports continue entering the United States tariff-free under USMCA, according to Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard's estimate reported by El Financiero. The figure stands in sharp contrast to the Canadian front: Washington has maintained, since Saturday August 22, tariffs of 50% on Canadian goods worth some $20 billion.
The same analysis notes that the tariff covers only 5% of what Canada sells to the United States, yet Washington applied it even to products that comply with USMCA rules of origin, meaning treaty compliance no longer guarantees preferential access. Canada suspended dialogue and is preparing "dollar-for-dollar" retaliation set to take effect on September 8. Against that backdrop, Mexico's posture stands in contrast: issue-by-issue negotiation, no retaliation, and priority given to preserving market access.
Marcelo Ebrard stated on Friday August 21 at InnovaFest Querétaro that Mexico is close to highly substantive agreements with the United States and will achieve results similar to those reached between Washington and Ottawa, according to La Jornada. The Secretary added that there will be improvements on steel, aluminum, and vehicles, and welcomed Canada's integration into the dialogue. He also addressed the U.S. accusation that Mexico serves as a conduit for Chinese products evading tariffs: he said no case exceeding 1% of foreign trade has been found, and that the United States imports from China 3.8 times more than from Mexico. The data arrives as the U.S. trade deficit with Mexico reached $203 billion over the twelve months to June, according to the Census Bureau.
The next test comes in September, when Mexico and the United States hold the fourth round of negotiations, followed by the USMCA review. The Canadian episode sends a clear signal: access to the U.S. market has become a revocable political concession, and Mexico's challenge will be to define its red lines before sitting at the table.
This article was written with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.