The 2027 Economic Package delivered by the Ministry of Finance (Secretaría de Hacienda) to Congress proposes lowering the fiscal deficit to 3.9% of GDP in 2027, a target that rating agencies will follow closely to decide whether Mexico keeps its investment grade, according to experts consulted by Bloomberg Línea on September 15, 2026.
The document proposes a budget of 10.6 trillion pesos and budgetary revenues of 9.16 trillion, with a deficit to be covered by 1.7 trillion in borrowing. The signal lands at a moment when the currency market is already pricing in pressure: the peso closed on Monday, September 14, at 17.14 units per dollar, its worst close since August 6, with a 1% depreciation during the session, according to El Universal Cartera. The point matters for Mexico because two of the three main rating agencies rate the sovereign debt at the last rung of investment grade, and a downgrade makes financing more expensive for both the government and companies.
Adriana Hernández Hortiales, a consultant and former official at the Ministry of Finance, noted that the Package promises fiscal consolidation while public debt keeps a rising trajectory: "This is what the rating agencies will be watching, and we need to stay alert." The document estimates that the Historical Balance of the Public Sector's Financial Requirements will go from 54% of GDP this year to 55% in 2027 and 56.4% in 2030. Héctor Villareal, director of the Initiative for Economic and Demographic Transition, said that "the Package is more realistic than last year's, I think the rating agencies will take it well." On the currency front, Gabriela Siller, chief economist at Banco Base, said: "If the Fed raises the interest rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, the rate differential between Mexico and the United States would fall to 250 basis points."
The next signal has a date: the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision on Wednesday, September 16 and, further out, the rating agencies' review of the fiscal targets. Public spending and tax collection are the indicators the cited specialists flag to gauge whether the debt trajectory holds.
This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.