The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (Hacienda) will deliver the 2027 Economic Package to Congress no later than September 8, with a projection to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3.5% of GDP. The budget will put the credibility of fiscal consolidation to the test before the rating agencies, analysts cited by El Financiero warn.
The challenge is rooted in the debt trajectory. Moody's, Fitch Ratings, and S&P have reviewed the country's debt rating and warned that the widening deficit threatens the preservation of investment-grade status, Expansión reports. The historical balance of the Public Sector Borrowing Requirements is estimated at 54.8% of GDP for 2027, up from 54% this year, according to BNP Paribas, cited by El Financiero. Debt accumulated to 19 trillion pesos through June, and its financial cost represented 14.3% of total expenditure, according to official figures reported by the same outlet. The trajectory shown in the package will be the signal that rating agencies and investors are waiting for.
Citi estimates the deficit at 4.4% of GDP for 2026 and 3.7% for 2027, compared to 4.1% and 3.5% projected by Hacienda in the 2027 Pre-criteria. In the first half of 2026, the ministry reported an under-execution of nearly 500,000 million pesos in total expenditure, concentrated in Pemex, rail projects, and social programs, leaving the deficit 358,000 million pesos below target. Julio Ruiz, Citi's chief economist for Mexico, noted that what matters is whether the package shows no significant deviation from consolidation and whether it details which spending categories will face cuts, since investment has been one of the most affected areas this year. Pamela Díaz Loubet, BNP Paribas' economist for Mexico, warned that consolidation must not come at the expense of investment.
On September 8, the document will reveal whether the 3.5% target holds and which categories absorb the adjustments, the data that rating agencies and markets will read to track the debt trajectory. Mexico's investment-grade status will depend on how agencies interpret that figure.
This article was written with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.