The peso closed August at 16.99 wholesale per dollar on August 31, according to Banco de México data reported by El Financiero. Over the month, the currency posted a 2% appreciation, the second consecutive monthly gain and the strongest since April; on August 21 it touched 16.89, its firmest level since May 2024, according to El Universal.
The appreciation reflects the dollar's broad weakness amid uncertainty over the U.S. economy and Mexico's interest-rate differential versus other countries, explained Banamex analyst Paulina Anciola, as quoted by El Universal. Currency strength carries a direct cost for the treasury: the 2026 General Economic Policy Guidelines (CGPE) specify that for every 20 centavos the average exchange rate falls below the budgeted level of 19.3 pesos per dollar, the treasury forgoes 8.3 billion pesos in revenue from lower Pemex export valuations, while savings on external debt contribute 3.4 billion pesos.
At retail, the dollar closed August at 17.41 pesos at Banamex's selling rate. With the current average exchange rate at 17.42 pesos, the Finance Ministry's own framework implies a 46-billion-peso shortfall for the 2026 fiscal year-end, according to analysis published September 1 by El Universal. The net balance per 20 centavos of appreciation is negative 4.9 billion pesos. Banamex analyst Arely Medina noted that petroleum revenues remained the primary source of pressure on public income for the year, constrained by lower export volumes and an exchange rate more appreciated than the rate assumed in the budget program. The Finance Ministry has until September 8 to submit the 2027 CGPE to Congress.
The private-sector consensus projects the exchange rate at 17.68 pesos at year-end, according to a Citi survey of 37 banks, brokerage houses, and research groups. The presentation of the 2027 CGPE on September 8 will provide the first official reading of how the appreciation is incorporated into revenue projections.
This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.