Mexico's export crude blend traded at $89.26 per barrel on Tuesday, September 1, its highest level since July 23, according to data from Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) as reported by El Universal. That figure sits more than $34 above the average the Finance Ministry (Secretaría de Hacienda) projected for 2026.
The day's gain of 9.3% extended a four-session winning streak, driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East. U.S. Central Command announced it had launched strikes against targets of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, renewing fears over crude transit through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI gained 5.2%, closing at $90.22, while Brent settled at $94.65. Infobae México placed the Mexican blend's close at $89.3 on the same session. For Mexico's public finances, crude prices carry direct weight on budget revenues.
Banco de México records show the blend has accumulated a gain of 66.5% so far in 2026. Year-to-date, it averages $79.52 per barrel, well above the $54.9 the Finance Ministry estimated for 2026 in the General Economic Policy Guidelines (Criterios Generales de Política Económica), and above the $77.30 it anticipated in the Pre-Guidelines for 2027. Banamex analyst Paulina Anciola explained that the new Middle East tensions generated concern over energy flow disruptions through Hormuz, and that the conflict is expected to last for months. In that scenario, Banamex raised its Brent forecast for 2026 from $81.1 to $85.5, and its Mexican blend forecast from $72.6 to $76.5. For 2027, the institution projects Brent at $72.3 and the blend at $64.3.
The rally leaves petroleum revenue above Mexico's 2026 budget target, and how long that margin holds depends on how the Persian Gulf escalation unfolds. The daily prices Pemex publishes in the coming sessions will indicate whether this level is sustained.
This article was drafted with artificial intelligence assistance based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.