Mexico's Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) advanced 3.4% annual in July 2026 and notched five consecutive months of growth, the strongest uptick in two years, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Inegi), which released the figure on September 24, 2026.
The number topped the consensus of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, who had expected 2.5%, and it even came in above the most optimistic forecast of 3.2%, according to El Universal Cartera. La Jornada reported that the seasonally adjusted monthly gain was 0.8% versus June, the first positive rate in three months. The pattern matters for Mexico because two-thirds of the economy depends on services, the sector driving the rebound, and because the January-July accumulated figure reaches 1.5% annual, with industry still at 0.4%. The original measurement, which compares July against the same month of 2025, is the one the market follows to gauge the start of the third quarter.
The breakdown by activity shows uneven performance. Tertiary activities grew 4% annual, with wholesale trade at 13%, retail trade at 3.6% and financial services at 1.4%; in the opposite direction, business support services fell 4.3% and accommodation and food preparation 2%. Secondary activities advanced 2.7%, driven by construction at 7.3%, while mining and manufacturing each expanded 1.6% and electricity 0.6%. Primary activities retreated 1.1%, with agriculture at negative 3.3% and livestock raising at positive 2.7%. Analysts at Valmex Casa de Bolsa estimated, in the El Universal report, that services and construction will remain the main engines. La Jornada noted that industry reversed a negative trajectory in place since August 2024.
The next checkpoint is the August data and Banxico's expectations survey. With a 1.5% accumulated figure over seven months, the behavior of industry, which is still growing below the rest, will shape the estimates for the close of 2026 and the forecasts in the budget package.
This article was drafted with the assistance of artificial intelligence based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.