The National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) reported on October 20, 2026, that its Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) forecasts annual growth of 3.7% in the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE) for September 2026, the highest rate in nearly three years. The index level of 108.4 points marks the series high, according to the institute itself.
The IOAE is an econometric exercise that runs five weeks ahead of the official figure and serves as a monthly thermometer for the Mexican economy. According to El Financiero, the institute revised its August estimate upward, from 2.5% to 3.2%, and recent revisions point in the same direction. For Mexico the figure matters because it changes the arithmetic of the year: with the official July reading and the August and September estimates, the third quarter shows growth of close to 3.4%, against 0.4% in the first quarter and 1.8% in the second. This is an econometric estimate, not an observed figure.
El Universal reported that services, which account for roughly two thirds of GDP, expanded 4% year on year, while industry advanced 3.6%. Among the factors supporting the advance, Banco Base chief economist Gabriela Siller cited higher public spending on physical investment and the pace of computer equipment exports, which surged 210% between January and August. Monex director of economic analysis Janneth Quiroz noted that investment will be conditioned by trade uncertainty and the review of the USMCA (T-MEC). The IOAE also limits the reading: its confidence interval for September runs from 2.6% to 4.9%, and the monthly momentum slowed from 0.8% in July to 0.5% in August and 0.1% in September.
The calendar sets two verification dates: the official IGAE figure for August on Friday, October 23, 2026, and, at the end of the month, the timely estimate of third-quarter GDP. The Citi Survey keeps its median growth forecast for 2026 at 1.4%, with a range of 0.9% to 1.7%, while Banxico's benchmark rate stands at 6.50%.
This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.