The Citi Expectations Survey, published on September 4, raised the median GDP growth projection for Mexico in 2026 to 1.3%, up from 1.2%, and strengthened the year-end exchange rate forecast to 17.50 pesos per dollar. The analysts' revision arrives four days before the Finance Ministry delivers the 2027 Economic Package to Congress.
The survey, which aggregates forecasts from 37 financial institutions, held the 2026 general inflation estimate at 4% and Banco de México's benchmark rate at 6.50% at year-end. Private-sector growth estimates remain below the official figure: Banxico projects GDP of 1.5% this year and 2% for 2027, while analyst consensus puts next year's growth at 1.8%. The gap between the two scenarios matters because the Macroeconomic Framework that Finance will present alongside the Economic Package will set the official revenue and expenditure assumptions used to calculate the budget.
In the currency market, year-end 2026 estimates range from 17.00 to 18.75 pesos per dollar, and the 2027 consensus settled at 18.07, with a range of 17.40 to 19.10. The expectation for next year stood at 18.24 units fifteen days ago, and among the institutions most optimistic on the currency are Barclays, Oxford Economics, and Morgan Stanley, while GBM, Bx+, Banca Mifel, and UBS see an outcome closer to surpassing 18 pesos, according to El Financiero. Of the 37 participants, 25 do not anticipate a move in Banxico's rate and 12 expect an adjustment. The median headline and core inflation forecast for 2027 came in at 3.80%. For next year's growth, the forecast range runs from 1.0% to 2.3%.
The next reference point is fixed: September 8, when the Finance Ministry sends the 2027 Economic Package to Congress together with the Macroeconomic Framework. The figures accompanying the document will allow a direct comparison between the official scenario and the one outlined by private analysts.
This article was written with artificial intelligence assistance from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.