The Centro de Investigación Económica y Presupuestaria (CIEP) concluded that the 2027 Economic Package leaves fiscal consolidation pending and that public debt will reach 55% of GDP in 2027, up from the 51.4% forecast at the start of the administration, according to the analysis the organization presented on September 11, 2026.

The Secretaría de Hacienda y Crédito Público projects a deficit of 3.9% of GDP as measured by the Public Sector Financial Requirements, above the 3.5% set out in the April Pre-Criteria and below the 4.1% estimated for the close of 2026, according to El Economista's tally. The CIEP describes the macroeconomic framework as realistic, but places the adjustment below what is desirable. The point matters for Mexico because the financial cost of the debt, at 4% of GDP, already exceeds the 3.9% deficit itself, according to the analysis published by Bloomberg Línea, which narrows the fiscal room available for social spending and public investment.

Total net spending comes to 10.6 trillion pesos, and four items account for 72% of the total:

On the revenue side, the Income Law Initiative projects 9.16 trillion pesos, 23.2% of GDP, with a 20.8% contraction in oil revenues that the Miscelánea Fiscal does not manage to offset, according to La Jornada. Judith Méndez, executive director of the CIEP, stated that "this number has systematically been underestimated" and described the package as "a very slow start" on the consolidation path.

The package now goes to Congress with growth assumptions of between 1.5% and 2.5%, an interest rate of 6%, an exchange rate of 18 pesos per dollar and oil at 61.8 dollars per barrel. José Luis Clavellina, research director of the CIEP, noted that the country's credit rating depends on those fiscal targets being met.

This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence based on verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.