The Bank of Mexico cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.25% on November 5, 2026, in a split 3 to 2 vote. Barclays anticipates the rate will reach 6% by the close of 2027, according to the Citi Survey.
It was the third split reduction of the year, after those in March and May, El Financiero reported. In its statement, the Governing Board maintained that "keeping the rate at the level reached for a prolonged period" will support the convergence of inflation to its target and will be appropriate for facing external macroeconomic challenges. Expansión reported that the Secretariat of Finance and Public Credit had forecast in the General Economic Policy Criteria 2027 a close of 6.50% this year and 6% the following year, the same reference Barclays uses to anticipate another cut. The level of the benchmark rate weighs on the cost of mortgages and business financing in Mexico.
The vote was 3 to 2: Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja and Deputy Governors Gabriel Cuadra and Omar Mejía approved the cut, against the opposing votes of Galia Borja and Jonathan Heath, El Financiero detailed. Banxico raised its inflation forecast for the fourth quarter from 3.5% to 3.7%, while core inflation, at 3.78%, has been falling since February. Banxico kept the balance of risks skewed to the upside and acknowledged that longer-term inflation expectations remain above target. The dollar rose 27 centavos on Thursday, November 5, and touched 18.81 pesos in the interbank market, although the week closed near 18.60, and the stock exchange advanced 2.25%. Along with Barclays, Bankaool, Finamex, Itau BBA and UBS anticipated the 25-point cut, according to the Citi Survey of November 4.
Barclays projects that the rate will close 2027 at 6%, a reference for the cost of mortgages and business financing. The minutes of the decision are published on November 19, the Federal Reserve decides on December 9 and Banxico closes the year on December 17.
This article was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.