Banco de México announces on Thursday, November 5, 2026, its second-to-last monetary policy decision of the year, with the benchmark rate at 6.50%, the level in force since May, and with most analysts surveyed by Citi expecting no move, according to the survey conducted on November 4.
Of the 36 participants cited by Bloomberg Línea, 20 expect no change, six anticipate a 25 basis point cut to 6.25%, and ten place the next move in 2027. The six anticipating the adjustment are Bankaool, Barclays, Bradesco BBI, Finamex Casa de Bolsa, Itaú BBA and UBS. The data matters for Mexico because the benchmark rate sets the floor for the cost of financing for companies and households and, at the same time, sustains the relative yield that makes the peso attractive. El Economista reported on November 4 that the pause consensus repeats for the fifth consecutive fortnight and that BofA Securities expects a four-to-one vote, with Omar Mejía dissenting.
Analysts' reading rests on three data points. Core inflation rebounded to 3.78% annual in the first half of October, above the 3% target, according to Bloomberg Línea. The differential between Banxico's rate and the Federal Reserve's stands at around 262.5 basis points, with the Fed in a range of 3.75% to 4%. And the peso has accumulated a decline of close to 10% in two months, according to El Economista. Paulina Anciola, deputy director of Economic Studies at Banamex, wrote that "the potential benefits of cutting are low compared with the risks of exacerbated volatility and possible cost to the central bank's credibility." Eduardo Suárez, vice president of Economic Analysis for Latin America at Scotiabank, wrote for his part that the threshold for an additional cut remains demanding.
The decision is published at 13:00 Mexico City time. The statement and the vote tally will be the signal to watch ahead of the December meeting, the last of the year. A 4-to-1 vote keeps the pause as the dominant scenario; a 3-to-2 vote leaves the market without consensus on the next meeting.
This note was written with the assistance of artificial intelligence from verified sources and reviewed by a human editor before publication.